If the Indianapolis Colts are going to be the subject of your winning NFL picks on Sunday against the Minnesota Vikings, they are going to need a heck of a lot to happen. Rookie QB Andrew Luck came forward with a respectable day last week, as in spite of his loss and his turnovers, he also showed flashes that he has the potential to be one of the great quarterbacks in this league.
The key on Sunday? Get the ball down the field!
Last week, seemingly all of the successful drives for the Jacksonville Jaguars against these Vikings involved some sort of a ball down the field. There were five passes on the day that went for at least 15 yards, and on those drives that involved those plays, four ended in scores. The key play of them all was the 39-yard touchdown pass to WR Cecil Shorts that should have won the game in regulation for the Jags.
When the Vikings cram the line of scrimmage and go to bump and run coverage, something that we expect to see a heck of a lot of, Luck needs to grip it and rip it.
Yes, Luck didn’t complete a single pass of more than 26 yards in his NFL debut, but he wasn’t afraid to take some shots, especially in the middle of the field to TE Coby Fleener. Some were open that he missed, and some were nailed to his college teammate. Remember that last week as well, Minnesota allowed TE Marcedes Lewis to catch five passes for 52 yards with a TD. Fleener is used more often and is a better target for Luck than Lewis is for QB Blaine Gabbert.
WR Donnie Avery and WR Reggie Wayne can also shake a corner on the outside and go long.
An over/under of 44.5 almost suggests that this one is going to have its scores from long range, and that’s what the Colts are going to have to hope for. If Luck can work the ball deep, Head Coach Chuck Pagano and his rookie quarterback can both make their home debuts winning ones.